Why 2024/2025 is the best year to see the Northern Lights

Mesmerising, magical and magnificent!

The Northern Lights are visible over Iceland from late August to mid April each year. Though they can’t be relied upon to materialise at a specific time or even day, they show up randomly against dark skies throughout this period. When they do, the sight of these ethereal arcs, ribbons and curtains is captivating.

The colourful aurora borealis illuminates the heavens in shades of green, purple, pink and red. It creates a magnificent display that might last only a few fleeting seconds or dance around for several hours. It’s partly this unpredictability that makes the Northern Lights so enchanting. No wonder travellers are willing to journey so far for the opportunity to see it with their own eyes.

You may have seen in the news that the early part of 2024 saw some extraordinarily strong auroras. In May 2024, the strongest geomagnetic storm for more than two decades meant that the Northern Lights were visible at latitudes much further south than is usually the case. In northerly locations that experience the aurora more frequently, the intensity of displays was at times remarkable.

The solar cycle

These memorable displays can be explained by something called the solar cycle. The sun’s activity isn’t steady, but instead is characterised by peaks and troughs. One significant aspect of such variation is the presence of sunspots. Sunspots are what we call cooler patches on the surface of the sun.

When seen from earth, sunspots appear darker than what’s around them. Since the time of Galileo, observations about the number of sunspots have been made but it took a while longer for there to be sufficient data to analyse properly. By the 19^th century, astronomers were able to sift through those historical records and identify that there was a pattern.

They found that the solar cycle followed on average an 11 year cycle. Looking back, scientists had enough data to be able to identify a pattern from the mid 18^th century. The first solar cycle, they say, took place from 1755 to 1766. Right now, we are almost in the middle of Solar Cycle 25.

This solar cycle wasn’t supposed to be a good one: before it kicked off, organisations such as NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) were predicting a quiet cycle with minimal activity. Instead, we’ve been experiencing the exact opposite, which is great news for anyone who wants to see the Northern Lights.

Sunspots and their role in auroral activity

There’s a noticeable connection between the increased presence of sunspots and the frequency of the aurora borealis. During the solar cycle, there is a considerable variation in the number of sunspots that appear on the surface of the sun. The middle of the solar cycle is called the solar maximum and this is when astronomers have identified that sunspot totals peak.

Sunspots have a direct link to the presence of the Northern Lights. This is because magnetic fields nearby get twisted and crossed. When hot matter called plasma interacts with these magnetic fields, it causes a sudden burst of energy and an explosion. We call such explosions solar flares and they are accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CMEs).

What happens during a geomagnetic storm?

During a coronal mass ejection, charged particles are flung out towards the earth’s upper atmosphere. They create huge but temporary disturbances known as geomagnetic storms. During that exceptionally late and strong sighting of the Northern Lights in May 2024, five of these CMEs happened in quick succession.

As the charged particles reach earth’s upper atmosphere, they hit the gases that occur there, mostly nitrogen and oxygen. The gas molecules absorb energy from the charged particles which causes them to enter what scientists call an excited state. But afterwards, they relax again and this is when they give off the excess energy as light.

Depending on the gas, this light takes on different colours. For instance, oxygen commonly gives off a green light, and sometimes red. Nitrogen results in purple, pink and blue tones. In addition, the form of the aurora varies and can occur as wavy lines, arcs, curtains and sunbursts radiating out from a central point.

It looks like we are approaching the solar maximum

The peak of the solar cycle is called the solar maximum and this one is turning out to be quite something. We’re seeing a lot more sunspots as we approach the middle of Solar Cycle 25 than scientists predicted. In January 2023, astronomers estimated that there would be 63 of them; in fact, by the end of the month, they’d observed 143.

Since then, solar activity has continued to exceed expectations and there have already been some spectacular aurora displays. It’s impossible to predict exactly when the solar maximum will take place. Scientists think it’s likely to be somewhere between 2024 and 2026 but it looks like we are close to reaching it.

There’s every indication that this kind of occurrence will continue as we reach the end of 2024 and enter 2025, which means that there’s a good chance we’ll be seeing the Northern Lights much more frequently and with greater intensity. It could be a very special season for aurora hunters in Iceland and elsewhere across the northern latitudes.

Why should you come to Iceland to see the Northern Lights?

You might argue that if this coming season is likely to be a strong one for the aurora then there’s no need to travel to Iceland to see something that you might be able to see at home. But there are plenty of reasons why it’s worth planning a trip north, so let’s summarise the main ones:

• The Northern Lights are visible more often at northerly latitudes in places such as Iceland and form a ring-shaped area around the pole called the aurora oval. This often covers the entire country in autumn, winter and spring, which gives you plenty of opportunity to see them if other conditions – such as having a cloud-free sky – are met.
• The Kp index, which measures the intensity of the aurora, is often relatively weak. It’s measured on a scale from 0 to 9 and is most commonly at the lower end of that range. But the figure doesn’t have to be as high the closer you are to the oval for you to see the Northern Lights.
• Many places in Iceland, such as the Reykjanes peninsula, are sparsely populated and free of light pollution. This makes it easier to see the Northern Lights against a dark sky than if you were in a town or city, which is why if you live in an urban area you can really benefit from coming to this part of Iceland for your aurora hunt.
• Many tour operators in Iceland have a lot of experience when it comes to tracking down the aurora borealis. They take their guests to the most suitable places so that if the Northern Lights do make an appearance, you’ll get a good view of them. It’s worth tapping into their experience rather than relying on being able to see them at home.
• Some hotels and guesthouses in Iceland are able to offer a wake-up service. That means if the aurora borealis shows up late when you’ve already turned in for the night, with your permission someone will let you know so that you don’t miss them. At home, you might get lucky, but who wants to stay up to the early hours of the morning if there’s only a very slim chance of success?

If you’ve dreamed of visiting Iceland outside the summer season, it looks like this could be the time to do so. As this active solar cycle reaches its zenith, we could be in for some incredible displays. Though there are no guarantees, it looks like the odds are favourable, so why not give it a shot?